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Betting Probability Explained

In order to successfully manage to make money from online sports bets, you are going to need a lot more than just intuition. You will need a deeper understanding of the betting system and the betting odds. The odds represent the winning probabilities and they can help you quantify the value of your bet. Today we are going to approach the betting probability in order to help you make more accurate bets.

Betting Probability Explained Betting Probability Explained Picture
  • The basics of betting odds

If you have never placed a sports bet, than you are probably having a hard time understanding the betting system. The first thing that you need to learn how to do is read and understand the odds. You must also learn how to convert odds into probability and the other way around. Furthermore, you should know that the betting odds are mere guidelines and you need to learn to compare the bookie’s odds with your own analysis. Another thing that you need to learn in order to be a professional sports gambler is to learn to convert different ways of stating the odds.

  • Betting probability

Probability is a concept that we are all familiar with. It refers to the likelihood of an event’s turnout. Probabilities are calculated in percentages and they take values from 0 and 1. The sum of all probabilities of an event is always 1 if the probabilities are mutually exclusive. The meaning of mutually exclusive is that only one of all of an event’s probabilities can happen in the same time. On the other hand, when we talk about collective exclusive probabilities we refer to a situation in which at least one of the probabilities will occur.

  • Categorizing probabilities

There are three main types of probabilities: empirical, subjective and priori. An empirical betting probability is based on relative frequencies of past events. This means that if an event has had the same outcome on several occasions, we can assume that in the future it will also have the same outcome, as long as it happens under the same conditions. In order to calculate an empirical probability we must sum up the number of times that an event has occurred in the past and divide it by the total number of observations. For example. If team A won 18 out of 19 games in a championship than we can deduce that the probability of Team A winning a match in the future championship is 18/19=94,7%. Using subjective probability is not a very accurate strategy but it can be useful if you have no other choices. This probability is based on making your own estimate of a game’s outcome based on your impressions of past games. A priori probability is based on reason and logical observations. This strategy means that you build your own probability algorithm based on accurate data such as team news, form and so on as well as your own impressions. The best priori probabilities are the ones which take as many factors into account as possible.

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