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Betting Psychology Basics – The Narrow Framing Effect

For a long time, sports betting was considered to be an entertainment for people who wanted to test their luck. However, more and more people realized that there are a lot of great ways to make money from sports bets. Nowadays the internet is full of tutorials, theories and statistics for people who want to learn how to treat sports bets like an investment. Nevertheless, the hardest part of being a professional better is not learning how to use formulas and how to read statistics. The hardest part is learning how to control your mind so that you doesn’t fall in the trap of the cognitive biases.

Betting Psychology Basics - The Narrow Framing Effect Betting Psychology Basics - The Narrow Framing Effect Picture
  • Understanding narrow framing

In simple words, the framing effect refers to our tendency to judge things based on the way they seem at first. It is the first impression that we have on an event which usually hunts us and influences our future judgement. In the betting world, narrow framing can make you lose a lot of money. In order to understand this, consider the following example: a recreational better is planing on wagering on an upcoming soccer game between two equally good teams. As he is pondering over what team to bet on, he hears a TV sport report saying that two of the star players of one of the teams will not be able to play due to certain injuries. In this moment, the recreational better will immediately assume that the team with the injured players has a handicap and since the teams were equally good, the opposing team is more likely to win. Even if the star players will be replaced with other good players, the recreational better will still be under the impression that the team has a handicap and therefore has fewer chances of winning.

  • How bookies make money from the narrow framing effect

Bookies often use sports news in order to adjust their odds but they are a lot more skilled and they consider the relevance of the information. Lets take the previous example in order to see how a situation like that affects the betting market. We will call the team with the injured players Team A which will be playing against Team B. If the bookies list Team B as an underdog, a lot of recreational betters would see this as a golden opportunity and they will bet a lot of money on Team B. A lot of betters don’t even do a thorough analysis before placing a bet. If you think about it, no matter how good a player is, in a team sport like soccer, the value of a player is relative. Furthermore, if a star player is replaced with a decent player, the overall value of a team does not diminish. Bookies would not rank Team B as an underdog unless they were certain that it has fewer chances of winning. There are certain situations in which bookies are not fast enough when adjusting their odds according to a new information but you should never rush your betting decision. Consider all aspects of the game and don’t let your mind be influenced by the framing effect. Try to be as objective as possible and do your own analysis of the game.




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