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Types of Betting Probability: Unconditional, Conditional and Joint

In order to be a professional better, you need to accumulate some knowledge from different fields such as investment or psychology. However, such knowledge and sports intuition are not enough in order to be a processional gambler. You also need to decipher the betting system as well as the odds guide. In a previous article, we talked about types of probability and we classified them according to the level of objectiveness with which the better processes the data. Today we are going to discuss another classification of the betting probability, which is made according to the conditions that we take into account when placing the bet.

Types of Betting Probability: Unconditional, Conditional and Joint Types of Betting Probability: Unconditional, Conditional and Joint Picture
  • Unconditional probability
The unconditional probability is the most basic of all probabilities and it is calculated without taking into account any conditions or exterior factors. It simply refers to the likelihood of an event happening or not.  It is calculated by dividing the number of times that an event must occur to the number of all possible outcomes. For example if you plan to bet on a team’s victory, regardless of the score, the betting probability will be 1/3. Three is the number of possible outcomes because the game can either end with a draw or with one of the two teams winning.
  • Conditional betting probability

This type of probability can be applied in a situation in which the probability that you seek is depending on another probability. For example if you bet that a team will win three games in a row in a championship then you are dealing with a conditional probability. In order for it to win three games, it must first win one game and then two. Unless the first two events have the expected outcome, the bet cannot be won.

  • Joint probability
This type of probability refers to the chances of a number of events happening together. In order to understand this probability we are going to consider an example of a parlay bet (when you make a single bet which includes more than one event). For example, if you bet on three separate games on the same ticket, the probability of you winning the bet is a joint probability.
As you can see, the way we calculate probability depends of the way we classify it. If the subjective or the priori probability were classified according to the way we processed certain sports information, conditional, unconditional and joint probabilities are classified according to factors or conditions which are influencing one or more events.

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